• 22 Dec
    How Will You React To Volatility?

    How Will You React To Volatility?

    • What will you do if volatility increases in 2018?
    • Your behavior and risk appetite is more important than what will happen with stocks.
    • We’ll discuss many strategies so you can find the one that will help you sleep well.



    Introduction

    We are currently in an environment of extremely low volatility and extremely high complacency. The S&P 500 is up 20% year to date, the economy is doing well, and it all seems perfect.

    No one knows if 2018 will be similar and therefore the only thing one can do is to have a plan of action prepared for any kind of scenario. Today, we’re going to discuss how to be prepared for an increase in volatility. More →

  • 21 Dec
    Here’s How To Hedge For 2018

    Here’s How To Hedge For 2018

    • Everything looks good with the FED raising rates, but a look under the hood says otherwise.
    • There is a possibility that we won’t see three interest rate hikes in 2018.
    • When things look so good that they can’t get any better, it’s time to leave the party.



    Introduction

    On Monday, we discussed what the main global risks are. Today I want to dig deeper into how to start thinking about portfolio positioning around these risks.

    The FED has started with its tightening policy which creates two investing opportunities. One depends on if the FED manages to increase rates three times in 2018 as planned, inflation rises to 2%, and the economy keeps growing at current rates while unemployment remains low. In such a scenario, everything that has worked well in the last 8 years will work well in 2018. More →

  • 20 Dec
    This Is How You Should Look At Risk

    This Is How You Should Look At Risk

    • Something that has just increased in price isn’t considered risky, but something that decreases is.
    • Further, something that isn’t volatile is also not considered risky.
    • I’ll discuss perhaps the most important currently overlooked factor in investing, risk.



    Introduction

    A recent Wall Stree Journal article discussed how 2017 was a bad year for Chinese IPOs.

    On aggregate, China’s 2017 IPOs created a negative 5.7% return and more than half of them produced negative returns of over 10% where 10 of the 16 stocks still trade below IPO prices. More →

    By Sven Carlin Investiv Daily Risk S&P 500
  • 19 Dec
    Will The FED Protect Your Wealth?

    Will The FED Protect Your Wealth?

    • The wealth gap is growing. Invest like the rich.
    • The FED will be forced to protect stocks and real estate prices as they are the key to current economic growth.



    Introduction

    The Boston Consulting Group interviews 250 investors annually who have a combined wealth of $500 billion. The results usually aren’t shocking except for this year. 65% of those investors think the market is overvalued. More →

  • 18 Dec
    There Are Big Global Risks Out There – Here’s How To Invest For Them

    There Are Big Global Risks Out There – Here’s How To Invest For Them

    If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from my research on financial markets, it’s that you always have to expect the unexpected. Nothing is linear, everything works in cycles and what monetary policy makers say is usually wrong.

    Last week when the FED raised interest rates, Janet Yellen said: “We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.”



    That might be true, but the fact is that every economy today is a global economy and the global economy isn’t synchronized. At some point, it will crack somewhere as it always does. The important thing for us is to be prepared for something like that and to see how to best position our portfolios for the consequences that a financial shock might create. More →

  • 15 Dec
    Is Your Investing Strategy Sustainable?

    Is Your Investing Strategy Sustainable?

    • You might be invested in growth stocks or defensive stocks, but which are best?
    • The key for long term investing is knowing what your goals are and how to get there.
    • An investing strategy that gives you an 80% chance of reaching your retirement goal can lead you to misery.



    Introduction

    We all have financial goals. Some of us know exactly what we want, some are more vague on it.

    Apart from knowing what you want, it’s also important to know how to get there. The vagueness around how to get there only increases when you’re not totally sure what you want. Nevertheless, I really believe that knowing what you want and developing a strategy that will get you there is much more important than what stocks to buy now or what sector to invest in. More →

  • 14 Dec
    This Strategy Could Help You Retire 6 Years Early

    This Strategy Could Help You Retire 6 Years Early

    • If you’re under 40, you should definitely read this.
    • We’ll discuss a retirement investing strategy created by Yale academics.
    • The common retirement investing strategy is terrible in any case.



    Introduction

    Retiring early is something a lot of us would love to do.

    There’s a way to do it that includes investing and leverage, but not the greedy kind of leverage where people bet the farm on a specific investment and lose everything. More →

  • 13 Dec
    Worried About The Chinese Financial System? Read This

    Worried About The Chinese Financial System? Read This

    • Investors tend to shy away from complex situations because they are difficult to understand. However, complex situations are exactly where the outsized profits lie for those who are willing to dig deeper.
    • The Chinese financial system has two sides, a scary one and a strong one.
    • There is one thing China has that no other market economy has.



    Introduction

    I’ll start this discussion with the story of American Express (NYSE: AXP) and its 1963 salad oil scandal.

    Anthony “Tino” De Angelis, a former commodities broker, figured that he could trick inspectors by putting just a few feet of salad oil in his containers and make it look like the containers were full as the oil floats on top of sea water. This allowed him to borrow huge amounts against the salad oil collateral. At one point, the oil market crashed and it was impossible to cash in on the collateral as there wasn’t any. More →

  • 12 Dec
    Invested In Index Funds? Your Future Self Will Thank You For Reading This

    Invested In Index Funds? Your Future Self Will Thank You For Reading This

    • I’ll discuss 5 things everyone who’s thinking about investing or has invested in index funds should know.
    • There’s only one way to properly invest in index funds, but few investors are able to stick to the strategy for a long time.
    • Index investing isn’t the cure-all, and proper portfolio allocation should be always applied.



    Introduction

    The predominant investing strategy right now is to invest in index funds which means that you own an index like the S&P 500, which is a basket of the 500 biggest businesses traded in the U.S.

    Owning part of the 500 biggest businesses in the U.S. isn’t a bad thing, but there are a few things you should know before allocating your hard-earned money to index funds. More →

  • 11 Dec
    Don’t Underestimate Market Sentiment

    Don’t Underestimate Market Sentiment

    • Sentiment is perhaps the strongest market driver. We’ll discuss the current situation.
    • It certainly doesn’t pay to be a fundamental market arbitrageur.
    • Should you follow the trend or is there a way to be smart about it?



    Introduction

    I’ve always preferred fundamental analysis, value investing, and looking for a margin of safety. That is still my main focus when analyzing and investing in a company, but I’ve learned that there is something no fundamental investor can disregard, market sentiment. More →

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