Search Results for: copper

  • 22 Jun
    Why I’m Getting More And More Excited About Copper

    Why I’m Getting More And More Excited About Copper

    • Forecasts on electric vehicle market penetration are getting more bullish.
    • At the same time, copper is already in a supply deficit.
    • Every copper miner is different, so be careful out there.

    Introduction

    I’m a value investor looking for low risk investments that will lead to high returns. Therefore, when I hear Elon Musk talk, I don’t get excited as an investor because the risk is too high for any potential return as there is a probability that TSLA goes bankrupt when a recession comes along or that it doesn’t turn a profit in the next decade as margins will probably get competed away. More →

  • 19 Feb
    Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

    Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

    The Escondida mine problems are only the tip of the iceberg for Copper, which appears to be in a bit of a panic since workers of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida copper mine in Chile started an indefinite strike on February 9, forcing a force majeure declaration on its shipments.

    Adding more fuel to the fire is a one-month delay to exports at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine when Freeport-McMoRan suspended copper concentrate output while in negotiations with the government over the terms of its mining permit which has expired. More →

  • 17 Feb
    Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too

    Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too

    • Copper bottomed in 2016 and the outlook remains bullish in the long term.
    • The short term could also offer positives due to strikes and political issues.
    • The long term balance for copper should be above $3.5 per pound and that price will be increasing due to lower copper ore grades and higher mining costs.

    Introduction

    The last time I wrote exclusively on copper was in April 2016. The bullish article is available here. Since then, copper prices have increased 22%, from $2.22 per pound to the current $2.73. As the dollar has also strengthened by 7% since then, we should add 7% to the current copper price to show the real appreciation in copper. Thus, copper would be at $2.92 in real terms. More →

  • 26 Apr
    Copper as an Investing Opportunity

    Copper as an Investing Opportunity

    • Copper has declined due to a strong dollar, increased production and a slowdown in China.
    • In the long term a supply deficit is expected as mining grades are constantly getting lower and demand is steadily growing.

    Introduction

    Commodities in general have been in a slump for the last 5 years; the Dow Jones Commodity Index peaked exactly 5 years ago on April 26 2011. High 2011 commodity prices induced new investments that—combined with low interest rates—made it easier to finance new projects, eventually increasing supply. With limited growth in demand the inevitable result was a contraction in prices. More →

  • 07 Aug
    Palladium Is On The Rise, But Is It Worth The Investment?

    Palladium Is On The Rise, But Is It Worth The Investment?

    • Palladium has been in a deficit for the past 6 years and it’s expected to remain in a deficit for the foreseeable future.
    • Palladium is both a precious metal and an industrial metal which has its pros and cons.
    • I’ll describe a few potential ways to invest in palladium.

    Introduction

    When someone mentions precious metals, the first metal that comes to my mind is gold. However, there are other precious metals and one of them is palladium.

    Palladium, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium form a group of elements referred to as the platinum group metals (PGMs). More →

  • 02 Aug
    Want To Invest In The Indian Economic Boom? It Isn’t Easy, But Sven Shows You How It’s Possible

    Want To Invest In The Indian Economic Boom? It Isn’t Easy, But Sven Shows You How It’s Possible

    • Investing in India isn’t easy as many Indian investments won’t benefit from Indian growth.
    • Indian ETFs won’t benefit either while valuations are a bit high.
    • There is a third option.

    Introduction

    If you read yesterday’s article on economic growth projections per country, you know that India has an unmatched position in the world. It has a young and more eager population, a huge labor cost advantage, relatively good education, a low starting point, and issues that can be resolved like corruption and a large geography.

    The country is growing at around 7% per year and is expected to continue to continue growing at that rate for the next few decades. There will of course be ups and downs, but the long term trend is extremely strong. More →

  • 28 Jul
    Miss Out On The Rise In Cobalt & Lithium? Here’s Another Metal To Keep An Eye On

    Miss Out On The Rise In Cobalt & Lithium? Here’s Another Metal To Keep An Eye On

    • Nickel is used in Tesla’s batteries, but its price hasn’t surged like cobalt or lithium has.
    • Supply is expected to be stable while more electric vehicle production could increase demand by 20% per year.
    • A long period of low investments, higher demand alongside stable supply could lead to a spike in nickel prices.

    Introduction

    When most people think about batteries and their composition, they mostly think about lithium as batteries are called “lithium-ion batteries.” However, lithium is only one of the metals that goes into a battery. The approximate amount of lithium used in a Tesla Model S battery pack is 63kg of a 453 kg battery. So there is another 390kg to address. A look at what other metals are used to make batteries for electric vehicles will give us interesting investing ideas. More →

  • 25 Jul
    Is It Time To Invest In Natural Gas?

    Is It Time To Invest In Natural Gas?

    • There are many influences on natural gas in the short term, but the long term is pretty clear.
    • Despite the growth in demand, there is no supply gap expected, and thus cost and moats should be looked for in potential investments.
    • As the long-term trend is positive, it’s a good thing to buy when there is pessimism in the sector, which is usually for a relatively short period.

    Introduction

    I recently wrote an article on oil where I discussed the implications of and best timing to invest in oil. A commodity that is closely related to oil is natural gas. However, the long-term supply and demand trends are a bit different than those for oil which make natural gas an interesting long-term investment opportunity. More →

  • 06 Jul
    The Only Way To Invest In The Automotive Sector Today

    The Only Way To Invest In The Automotive Sector Today

    • Automotive stocks are best bought in a recession. I’ll explain how patience pays off.
    • There are no indications of a recession, but car sales have already reached their ceiling.
    • However, a new trend is booming and you may want to expose your portfolio to it.

    Introduction

    The automotive industry is a perfect example of sector cyclicality. What’s important for us investors is that cyclicality offers great investment opportunities. However, a lot of patience is necessary as such opportunities usually only arise once in a decade and only when there is a recession.

    If we take a look at Ford’s (NYSE: F) stock price over the last 30 years, we can see how stock price dips coincide with economic recessions. The stock was the cheapest in 1991, 2002, 2008, and 2012 when there was a recession in Europe. More →

  • 27 Jun
    How To Spot A Bargain

    How To Spot A Bargain

    • Some countries are three times cheaper than the S&P 500 while one is five times cheaper.
    • I’ll describe an earnings exercise that helps in discovering bargains and give a hint on a few sectors to look at.
    • It would take the S&P 500 31 year of constant earnings growth at 5% to reach Kroger’s cumulative earnings if Kroger’s earnings just stay flat.

    Introduction

    As you probably know, the S&P 500 and many other indexes are extremely expensive. The cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio for the S&P 500 is 29.87, which is just about to pass the 1929 peak CAPE ratio. However, the situation isn’t much better around the world. The German stock index has a CAPE ratio of 19.6, the Dutch index 21.6, Australia 17.5, India 20.3, and Japan 24.9. These CAPE ratios of around 20 mean that you can expect investment returns of around 5% or lower in the long term.

    I find any kind of stock market return below 10% a crazy investment because the risk of owning stocks is simply too high for anything less than 10%. You might wonder where you can find double digit investment returns. Well, this is what I’m going to share in this article. More →

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