Search Results for: copper

  • 31 Aug
    How Things Have Quickly Changed On The Outlook For Copper

    How Things Have Quickly Changed On The Outlook For Copper

    • Everyone was negative on copper just a year ago. Today, most are positive.
    • There are two factors that help determine whether there will be a future turnaround or not for a commodity.
    • The nice thing is that all the data is easily accessible with a bit of research and a long term view.

    Introduction

    I’ve been writing about the imminent supply gap in copper for about a year and a half now. However, when I first came out with this thesis, the copper environment was extremely negative.

    The following headlines are an example of just some of the negativity surrounding copper in the last three years. More →

  • 22 Jun
    Why I’m Getting More And More Excited About Copper

    Why I’m Getting More And More Excited About Copper

    • Forecasts on electric vehicle market penetration are getting more bullish.
    • At the same time, copper is already in a supply deficit.
    • Every copper miner is different, so be careful out there.

    Introduction

    I’m a value investor looking for low risk investments that will lead to high returns. Therefore, when I hear Elon Musk talk, I don’t get excited as an investor because the risk is too high for any potential return as there is a probability that TSLA goes bankrupt when a recession comes along or that it doesn’t turn a profit in the next decade as margins will probably get competed away. More →

  • 19 Feb
    Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

    Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

    The Escondida mine problems are only the tip of the iceberg for Copper, which appears to be in a bit of a panic since workers of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida copper mine in Chile started an indefinite strike on February 9, forcing a force majeure declaration on its shipments.

    Adding more fuel to the fire is a one-month delay to exports at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine when Freeport-McMoRan suspended copper concentrate output while in negotiations with the government over the terms of its mining permit which has expired. More →

  • 17 Feb
    Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too

    Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too

    • Copper bottomed in 2016 and the outlook remains bullish in the long term.
    • The short term could also offer positives due to strikes and political issues.
    • The long term balance for copper should be above $3.5 per pound and that price will be increasing due to lower copper ore grades and higher mining costs.

    Introduction

    The last time I wrote exclusively on copper was in April 2016. The bullish article is available here. Since then, copper prices have increased 22%, from $2.22 per pound to the current $2.73. As the dollar has also strengthened by 7% since then, we should add 7% to the current copper price to show the real appreciation in copper. Thus, copper would be at $2.92 in real terms. More →

  • 26 Apr
    Copper as an Investing Opportunity

    Copper as an Investing Opportunity

    • Copper has declined due to a strong dollar, increased production and a slowdown in China.
    • In the long term a supply deficit is expected as mining grades are constantly getting lower and demand is steadily growing.

    Introduction

    Commodities in general have been in a slump for the last 5 years; the Dow Jones Commodity Index peaked exactly 5 years ago on April 26 2011. High 2011 commodity prices induced new investments that—combined with low interest rates—made it easier to finance new projects, eventually increasing supply. With limited growth in demand the inevitable result was a contraction in prices. More →

  • 05 Dec
    What You Can Learn From How The Market Reacts To News

    What You Can Learn From How The Market Reacts To News

    • I’ll analyze a few scientific studies on how news impacts stock prices and also a couple of interesting case studies.
    • There are some rules that can be applied to news and stocks.
    • It’s interesting how Wall Street always weighs the short term much more heavily than the long term.



    Introduction

    I’m sure you often see abrupt price moves with the stocks you follow or own. Those abrupt moves—which can go to 10% or even 20% in a day for a relatively stable business, 20% to 50% for a mining company, and even more than 50% for a pharmaceutical—are due to some kind of news coming from the company or related to the company that makes investors take action and sell or buy.

    Today, we’re going to discuss how stocks usually react to news, the information asymmetry, the stock price drift, and how to take advantage of the sharp price moves. More →

  • 06 Nov
    This Is Why You Need To Be Invested In Emerging Markets

    This Is Why You Need To Be Invested In Emerging Markets

    • In investing, having a strong tailwind is perhaps more important than picking the right stocks.
    • Finding good stocks in emerging markets isn’t that difficult, and plenty of them trade on U.S. exchanges.
    • It all boils down to fundamentals. Rebalance accordingly between developed and emerging markets.



    Introduction

    I’ve talked a lot about investing in emerging markets, but I’ve never assessed emerging markets from an holistic perspective.

    Today, you’ll read everything you need to know about investing in emerging markets. It’s extremely important to know why to invest in emerging markets, and then to understand the best way how to do so because not every investment in emerging markets is going to do well. More →

  • 03 Nov
    This Stock Could See A Fivefold Increase In Price, But The Risks Are Huge

    This Stock Could See A Fivefold Increase In Price, But The Risks Are Huge

    Being a value growth investor, I’d recommend a stock that has a strong margin of safety—thus little chance of permanent capital loss—while also having huge upside coming from market recognized or unrecognized catalysts.

    There are some investments out there where the potential loss is total while the potential upside is extremely high. I wouldn’t call these investments, and only would recommend one as it’s more like a bet.

    To keep things interesting, today I want to share with you such a bet by discussing a non-linear stock with out of the box thinking management, McEwen Mining (NYSE: MUX). MUX will give you a clue as to how I research potential investments and analyze their risk reward ratios.



    McEwen Mining

    MUX is a producing, developing, and exploring gold/coper miner. Currently, it produces only gold, so the market puts it into the gold miners basket. Nevertheless, it has 3 producing mines in Ontario, Mexico, and Argentina, two gold mines in development, and various exploration targets. More →

  • 23 Oct
    This Is How You Get Returns Over 1,000%

    This Is How You Get Returns Over 1,000%

    • There are many examples of simple investments that returned more than 1,000%, some even 10,000%, over the last few decades.
    • In order to take advantage of such investments, you have to look at the extremes of what could happen in the next few years that aren’t included in the current economic models that use statistical averages.
    • Statistical averages are what you have to look for to protect you from negative surprises and open your portfolio to extremely positive surprises.



    Introduction

    A friend of mine just sold his home in Central London for 2.4 million pounds which is an average price in London. However, what’s interesting is that he bought the property in 1996 for just 160,000 pounds. In just 20 years, the value of his London property increased 15 times.

    Another example I have is from a recent WSJ article where a Park Avenue penthouse is selling for about $18 million. The funny thing is that the property was empty for 27 years as it was owned by the Former Republic of Yugoslavia which also allows us to know what the purchase price was in 1975. The purchase price was $100,000. In 40 years, the value of this property in New York increased 180 times. More →

  • 20 Oct
    Now’s The Time To Consider These 7 Hedging Strategies

    Now’s The Time To Consider These 7 Hedging Strategies

    • A hedge is like any other investment. Whether it’s good or bad depends on the price.
    • I’ll discuss 7 unconventional strategies that will give you some food for thought.
    • The best hedge is the free hedge. By looking deep enough, it’s possible to find it.



    Introduction

    Hedging is a very important, but an often-omitted investing strategy.

    The principle of hedging is to own something that will go the opposite direction of everything else in the case of a market crash, protecting your portfolio from potential losses. For example, if you own an S&P 500 portfolio, buying a put option on the S&P 500 gives you security in the event that the market falls as you won’t lose anything as the value of the put option should appreciate at the same rate the S&P 500 declines. More →

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