FED

  • 17 Apr
    The Flattening Yield Curve Means Trouble Ahead. Here’s What You Need To Know.

    The Flattening Yield Curve Means Trouble Ahead. Here’s What You Need To Know.

    • What is the yield curve?
    • The yield curve is flattening and if it inverts, there will be a recession.
    • What you can do.



    Introduction

    In this article, I’m going to explain what the yield curve is, what a flattening or steepening yield curve means, how the yield curve impacts the economy, and see whether the current yield curve indicates that we are close to a recession in 2018. More →

  • 20 Mar
    The End Of Free Money Is Here – Are You Prepared?

    The End Of Free Money Is Here – Are You Prepared?

    • Tesla’s equity might be worth zero.
    • Bitcoin is also in a downward trend, why?
    • There is still free money in some parts of the world.



    Introduction

    There’s one extremely strong wind of change blowing. The 9 year period of practically free money is ending and you should have a safe portfolio considering.

    I’m going to put things into perspective by discussing Tesla, Bitcoin, tariffs on European cars, and Toys R Us. Let’s start with Tesla. More →

  • 06 Feb
    This Is What Could Keep The Stock Market From Crashing

    This Is What Could Keep The Stock Market From Crashing

    • There are scenarios that could see stocks double from current levels, no matter how crazy those scenarios might look now.
    • I’ll explain what’s going on, why, and what can you do about it.
    • No one can know exactly what will happen, so the key is to be prepared for anything.



    Introduction

    After yesterday, many are expecting a stock market crash. And by looking at what happened in 2000 and 2009, it seems pretty logical that the market will crash as things are looking ridiculous. More →

  • 29 Jan
    At Davos, Dalio’s Message Tells You Everything You Need To Know

    At Davos, Dalio’s Message Tells You Everything You Need To Know

    • Dalio didn’t say that cash is trash or that it is stupid to hold cash.
    • I’ll explain in more detail what Dalio said.
    • Is the biggest risk nobody is seeing—with the exception of Dalio—political in nature?



    Introduction

    I love Davos because there is always a Bloomberg interview with beautiful mountain scenery and a freezing Ray Dalio.

    Perhaps because of the cold, Dalio always wants to keep the interview as short as possible and spits out all his thoughts on the economy, markets, etc. Some of it will be misinterpreted by the market, but the key message is always extremely important to hear. More →

  • 16 Jan
    Higher Inflation Could Be A Game Changer

    Higher Inflation Could Be A Game Changer

    • Inflation has finally reached the FED’s target of 2%.
    • Employment and GDP levels indicate we are in the late part of the economic cycle.
    • Will the FED lose control over its monetary policy?



    Introduction

    Global economies are all finally doing very well, or at least just well. You can’t expect economic skeletons like Europe to do very well. Nevertheless, monetary policies across developed markets are still supportive.

    Supportive policies, from the ECB still buying bonds on the open market, to the BOJ buying ETFs, and the U.S. lowering taxes, indicate that all these economies would be very different without supportive policies. More →

  • 28 Dec
    Swimming Naked?

    Swimming Naked?

    • The rising tide has really lifted all boats, but it’s extremely important to dive deeper and see who is swimming naked.
    • This will allow you to protect yourself from extreme downside and to potentially also earn something with some cheap hedges.
    • There are companies with no organic growth that have price to earnings ratios of 500…



    Introduction

    It will soon be nine years that we have been enjoying a rising economic tide. Economic policies around the world are still accommodative, and corporations really don’t have difficulties in finding financing.

    However, if you have been through economic kindergarten, you know that the only thing sure in economics is cyclicality. Therefore, it’s important to see who will be swimming naked when the tide shifts, how to be protected from such a possibility, and perhaps even how to take advantage of it. More →

  • 21 Dec
    Here’s How To Hedge For 2018

    Here’s How To Hedge For 2018

    • Everything looks good with the FED raising rates, but a look under the hood says otherwise.
    • There is a possibility that we won’t see three interest rate hikes in 2018.
    • When things look so good that they can’t get any better, it’s time to leave the party.



    Introduction

    On Monday, we discussed what the main global risks are. Today I want to dig deeper into how to start thinking about portfolio positioning around these risks.

    The FED has started with its tightening policy which creates two investing opportunities. One depends on if the FED manages to increase rates three times in 2018 as planned, inflation rises to 2%, and the economy keeps growing at current rates while unemployment remains low. In such a scenario, everything that has worked well in the last 8 years will work well in 2018. More →

  • 19 Dec
    Will The FED Protect Your Wealth?

    Will The FED Protect Your Wealth?

    • The wealth gap is growing. Invest like the rich.
    • The FED will be forced to protect stocks and real estate prices as they are the key to current economic growth.



    Introduction

    The Boston Consulting Group interviews 250 investors annually who have a combined wealth of $500 billion. The results usually aren’t shocking except for this year. 65% of those investors think the market is overvalued. More →

  • 18 Dec
    There Are Big Global Risks Out There – Here’s How To Invest For Them

    There Are Big Global Risks Out There – Here’s How To Invest For Them

    If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from my research on financial markets, it’s that you always have to expect the unexpected. Nothing is linear, everything works in cycles and what monetary policy makers say is usually wrong.

    Last week when the FED raised interest rates, Janet Yellen said: “We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.”



    That might be true, but the fact is that every economy today is a global economy and the global economy isn’t synchronized. At some point, it will crack somewhere as it always does. The important thing for us is to be prepared for something like that and to see how to best position our portfolios for the consequences that a financial shock might create. More →

  • 23 Nov
    The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It

    The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It

    • All indicators show a stock market crash is imminent, but what will the trigger be?
    • I’ll discuss what can happen and how bad it could get.
    • As for the timing of it, the best thing is to be prepared for anything.



    Introduction

    To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →

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