• Currency movements can be easily explained through macro trends, but the timing isn’t that precise. However, long term investors can reach additional returns by following a few easy steps.
• Cyclical currency patterns are natural, and under the influence of economic growth in the long term.
• The dollar is approaching its peak and is ready to return to its historical mean.

Introduction

In last weekend’s Sunday Edition, Investiv Founder, Shane Rawlings, elaborated on how long term macro trends inflect exactly at the moment when there seems to be a general consensus that the trend will last for a long, long time.

Nobody was buying stocks in 1981 because they thought high inflation would stay around forever. On the other hand, in the 1990s, people were convinced that the best investment was internet stocks. And in the 2000s, the conviction shifted to the real estate market as it seemed that the only way to go was up forever.

Currently there is a strong conviction that the U.S. dollar is going to strengthen as interest rates rise and the U.S. economy grows, and while Europe continues with monetary easing. More →