Risk

28 Jan

GES’s fat dividend doesn’t make it a great buy

Most long-term investors put a heavy emphasis on fundamental analysis to help guide their decisions about what stocks they should pay attention to. In that vein, one of the big questions that most investors like to try to answer is what kind of returns they can realistically expect over time. That might sound funny since stock prices are so fluid and vary from one extreme to another over time; but one of the things that has proven to be a pretty good point of reference is how actively management works to return value to its shareholders. There are two primary methods that get used: stock buybacks and dividends. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Retail Risk Technical Analysis Value Investing Value Traps
23 Jan

Is CTB worth its stock price?

January has mostly been a good month so far in the stock market; since bottoming near bear market territory just before Christmas, the S&P 500 is up a little over 6%. The rally has been broad-based enough that a variety of industries have followed the index higher. That rally includes stocks that fit into the Consumer Discretionary sector. This is a sector that covers a number of industries, including cyclicals like autos, auto parts and tires. More →

By Thomas Moore Auto Industry Auto Industry Discretionary Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Value Investing Value Traps
22 Jan

AAL might be a big value – but it looks more like a big value trap

Yesterday, I wrote about news over the weekend that winter storms had resulted in more than 1,100 cancelled flights out of Chicago. Another report indicated that from the Midwest to New England, total cancelled flights were more than 2,000 over the course of the weekend. The market was closed yesterday, so the first opportunity the market is going to have to react to this news is today. Don’t be surprised, however if airline stocks in particular are among the most volatile in the market through the entire week. More →

By Thomas Moore Airline Industry Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Transportation Value Investing Value Traps Volatility
21 Jan

Do winter storms make airlines like DAL a risky bet?

This last weekend, one of the headlines that grabbed my attention was about winter storms in the Midwest. Of course, at this time of year it doesn’t come as any kind of big surprise to hear or read about snow, cold or big storms in that part of the country; but any investor with an interest in paying attention to things that can impact the stock market should have sat up and taken notice by the accompanying report that more than 1,100 flights were cancelled out of Chicago by Saturday afternoon. More →

By Thomas Moore Airline Industry Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Oil Risk Transportation Value Investing
15 Jan

Don’t fall for the “dead cat bounce”

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The longer a market correction lasts, or extends into a prolonged bear market, the more we see stocks drop to incredibly low level versus their historical highs. The market continues to exhibit quite a bit of uncertainty, not only over global growth forecasts, but also whether the global economic slowdown, along with the deleterious effect of tariffs and trade tensions is finally starting to catch up in the United States. While it may not be a given that the market is going to turn bearish, I think that continued uncertainty is going to keep a lid on broad market upside as we move further into the year. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Market Forecast Retail Risk Technical Analysis US Economy Value Investing Value Traps
14 Jan

Are small-cap semiconductors like BHE a smart bargain?

Over the last couple of days, I’ve highlighted a couple of the biggest players in the Electronic Equipment industry that supplies the entire Technology sector. I think it’s always interesting, and useful to pay attention to the industries that supply a sector with the materials, services, and manufacturing or fabrication services it relies on. Since I also consider something of a techno-nerd, that also means that stocks like KLAC, LRCX, and today’s spotlight, Benchmark Electronics Inc. (BHE) are almost always going to pique my interest. More →

By Thomas Moore Bear Market Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technology Value Investing Value Traps
11 Jan

Is LRCX a big value opportunity, or a big value trap?

Did you study the California gold rush in your high school history class? I did, and I remember that one of the most interesting things to me about it was the fact that over the seven years that marked the period, the people that made the most money weren’t prospectors; they were the entrepreneurs that flocked to the territory to sell equipment and supplies to those prospectors. As an investor, I’ve found interesting parallels to those entrepreneurs in the industries that supply the major sectors of the American economy. More →

By Thomas Moore Fibonacci Retracements Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technical Analysis Valuations Value Investing
04 Jan

Is BBBY a bargain, or just cheap?

Warren Buffett is justifiably considered as one of the most successful investors of all time. The methods he employs to identify long-term investment opportunities have been thoroughly documented, by himself and others, and copied by value-oriented investors for decades. The annual reports he writes for Berkshire Hathaway are considered required reading in many investor quarters for the insights they give about his investing approach and its use under current market conditions, and market media outlets pay close attention to any opinions he renders about the economy or the market in general. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Efficient Market Hypothesis Fundamental Analysis Retail Risk Technical Analysis Value Investing
03 Jan

AAPL’s bad news could be GREAT news for QCOM – but probably not yet

Early this morning, one of the biggest drivers of market volatility was Apple Inc. (AAPL), which disappointed investors by slashing their revenue forecast dramatically. AAPL appears to be trying to manage the conversation around the reasons for that, as they attributed the largest portion of the decline to weakness in China. That is clearly spooking the market today, as this news seems to add credence to the notion that China’s economic slowdown is starting to have a long-feared trickle effect on U.S. multinationals. There is an interesting element of the story, however that I think is being overlooked quite a bit by most investors and that could represent an interesting long-term opportunity. More →

By Thomas Moore Apple Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technology Telecom Sector Value Investing Value Traps
02 Jan

ALK is a bargain-priced airline stock you shouldn’t ignore

One of the sectors that has led the entire stock market lower, and nearly to bear market levels is the transportation sector. Transportation is a sector that is normally expected to perform well when the economy is healthy, but as it has shown since the beginning of the last quarter of 2018, it can also lead the broad market as a bearish indicator when economic uncertainty and market fear increases. As measured by the S&P Transportation SPDR (XTN), the sector has declined by more than 18.5% since hitting its last major peak in late August of last year. That decline has really accelerated in the last month, as the sector has dropped almost 15% since the beginning of December. That has pushed a lot of stocks in this sector to levels not seen in the last two years. More →

By Thomas Moore Airline Industry Fundamental Analysis Interest Rates Investiv Daily Risk Technical Analysis Transportation US Economy Value Investing