Risk

15 Jan

Don’t fall for the “dead cat bounce”

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The longer a market correction lasts, or extends into a prolonged bear market, the more we see stocks drop to incredibly low level versus their historical highs. The market continues to exhibit quite a bit of uncertainty, not only over global growth forecasts, but also whether the global economic slowdown, along with the deleterious effect of tariffs and trade tensions is finally starting to catch up in the United States. While it may not be a given that the market is going to turn bearish, I think that continued uncertainty is going to keep a lid on broad market upside as we move further into the year. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Market Forecast Retail Risk Technical Analysis US Economy Value Investing Value Traps
14 Jan

Are small-cap semiconductors like BHE a smart bargain?

Over the last couple of days, I’ve highlighted a couple of the biggest players in the Electronic Equipment industry that supplies the entire Technology sector. I think it’s always interesting, and useful to pay attention to the industries that supply a sector with the materials, services, and manufacturing or fabrication services it relies on. Since I also consider something of a techno-nerd, that also means that stocks like KLAC, LRCX, and today’s spotlight, Benchmark Electronics Inc. (BHE) are almost always going to pique my interest. More →

By Thomas Moore Bear Market Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technology Value Investing Value Traps
11 Jan

Is LRCX a big value opportunity, or a big value trap?

Did you study the California gold rush in your high school history class? I did, and I remember that one of the most interesting things to me about it was the fact that over the seven years that marked the period, the people that made the most money weren’t prospectors; they were the entrepreneurs that flocked to the territory to sell equipment and supplies to those prospectors. As an investor, I’ve found interesting parallels to those entrepreneurs in the industries that supply the major sectors of the American economy. More →

By Thomas Moore Fibonacci Retracements Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technical Analysis Valuations Value Investing
04 Jan

Is BBBY a bargain, or just cheap?

Warren Buffett is justifiably considered as one of the most successful investors of all time. The methods he employs to identify long-term investment opportunities have been thoroughly documented, by himself and others, and copied by value-oriented investors for decades. The annual reports he writes for Berkshire Hathaway are considered required reading in many investor quarters for the insights they give about his investing approach and its use under current market conditions, and market media outlets pay close attention to any opinions he renders about the economy or the market in general. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Efficient Market Hypothesis Fundamental Analysis Retail Risk Technical Analysis Value Investing
03 Jan

AAPL’s bad news could be GREAT news for QCOM – but probably not yet

Early this morning, one of the biggest drivers of market volatility was Apple Inc. (AAPL), which disappointed investors by slashing their revenue forecast dramatically. AAPL appears to be trying to manage the conversation around the reasons for that, as they attributed the largest portion of the decline to weakness in China. That is clearly spooking the market today, as this news seems to add credence to the notion that China’s economic slowdown is starting to have a long-feared trickle effect on U.S. multinationals. There is an interesting element of the story, however that I think is being overlooked quite a bit by most investors and that could represent an interesting long-term opportunity. More →

By Thomas Moore Apple Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technology Telecom Sector Value Investing Value Traps
02 Jan

ALK is a bargain-priced airline stock you shouldn’t ignore

One of the sectors that has led the entire stock market lower, and nearly to bear market levels is the transportation sector. Transportation is a sector that is normally expected to perform well when the economy is healthy, but as it has shown since the beginning of the last quarter of 2018, it can also lead the broad market as a bearish indicator when economic uncertainty and market fear increases. As measured by the S&P Transportation SPDR (XTN), the sector has declined by more than 18.5% since hitting its last major peak in late August of last year. That decline has really accelerated in the last month, as the sector has dropped almost 15% since the beginning of December. That has pushed a lot of stocks in this sector to levels not seen in the last two years. More →

By Thomas Moore Airline Industry Fundamental Analysis Interest Rates Investiv Daily Risk Technical Analysis Transportation US Economy Value Investing
01 Jan

VFC is down 28% from its peak – but that doesn’t make it a good buy yet

Moving into a new year means new resolutions, new goals, and excitement for new opportunities that lie ahead. The end of 2018 marked the first year in a decade that the stock market closed in negative territory. The S&P 500’s decline for the entire year was a little more than -5%, which might not seem like too much of a big deal by itself; but the real story is the fact that after hitting its most recent all-time high in September, the market tested legitimate bear market territory before rallying back to close the year down 13% from that peak. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Fibonacci Retracements Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Retail Risk Technical Analysis Value Investing Value Traps
31 Dec

YUM has bucked the entire market – is it a good investment right now?

When the stock market struggles, the tendency for most investors is to start looking for “safe haven” investments. That often means getting out of stocks and moving your money into less volatile options like bonds or very short-term, interest-bearing instruments like Treasury bills, money markets or Certificates of Deposit. Some investors will be a bit more daring by keeping their toes in the market, but by looking for stocks that they think should hold up reasonably well even if the economy begins to weaken or move into a recessionary period. There are always stocks that buck the broader market’s trend; these are the exceptions to the rule, but the simple fact of their rarity is something that makes them worth paying attention to. More →

By Thomas Moore Defensive Stocks Discretionary Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Retail Risk Value Investing
26 Dec

MOS is down about 26% this month – is it a good bargain?

it seems like the global market has been waiting for the last couple of days for the next shoe to drop in the U.S. The Christmas holiday meant that U.S. markets closed early, and remained closed for Christmas Day itself as always, but that didn’t stop markets in Asia from their regular activity, and most seemed to operate on shaky, nervous ground. Always ready with a controversial, nerve-wracking sound bite, the Trump administration used the Christmas break to suggest the federal government’s shutdown will continue until Democrats get on board with his border wall plans, as well as to intensify speculation that the President is looking for a way to get rid of Fed chairman Jerome Powell. More →

By Thomas Moore Donald Trump FED Fibonacci Retracements Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Materials Potash Risk Technical Analysis US Politics Value Investing
25 Dec

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a bear market – is it really this bad?

If we wanted to try to find some kind of holiday-appropriate description for the stock market this Christmas season, I suppose it would make sense to compare it to the infamous Grinch from from Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas. It certainly seems that as we moved from Thanksgiving into December, much of the prevailing tone and sentiment in the market turned increasingly sour. Even yesterday, on a holiday-shortened trading session traders seemed to chose to emphasize the negative, focusing on the prospect of a long government shutdown and the job security of Fed chair Jerome Powell. More →

By Thomas Moore Bear Market Fundamental Analysis Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Market Forecast Market Forecast Risk S&P 500 Technical Analysis

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